AR, CR and ARCR modeling for simulations and analyses of karst groundwater quality parameters

Item

Vesna Ristić Vakanjac

Although an invisible component of the hydrologic cycle, groundwater generally takes precedence over other water resources in the area of drinking water supply. Among groundwater resources, karst aquifers tend to be rich in sufficiently-accessible amounts of high-quality water. During most of the year, this water requires only disinfection prior to delivery to the end user. However, in many cases extreme rainfall and/or sudden snow melt results in transient turbidity, increase in bacterial count and temporary contamination (e.g. increase in nitrate and phosphate concentrations). To be able to determine the effect of the precipitation regime on various groundwater quality parameters, it is necessary to establish continuous monitoring of the parameter of interest and certain parameters should be observed at least once a day, if not more often (continuously). Such monitoring provides sufficiently long time-series of the considered parameter, so that autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses can be undertaken and AR, CR and ARCR modeling used for simulations and short term forecasts. Apart from the theoretical background, the paper presents a case study of the occurrence of nitrates at a karst spring called “Banja” near the city of Valjevo, Serbia. A ten-year (1991–2000) timeseries of the discharged volume of water was used in the study, as well as nitrate concentrations recorded on a daily basis. In addition, daily precipitation was gauged in the immediate vicinity of the catchment and the rainwater chemically analyzed. The analyses included nitrate concentrations in precipitation. The generated timeseries were used for autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses of nitrate concentrations in the Banja Spring pool during the entire period of monitoring, as well as in one wet and one dry year. The results are presented for all three cases, based on simulations applying AR, CR and ARCR modeling.

Цитирање: Vesna Ristić Vakanjac et al., “AR, CR and ARCR modeling for simulations and analyses of karst groundwater quality parameters ” у Geološki anali Balkanskoga poluostrva(July, 2018).

Type

en Professional Paper

Creator

sr Vesna Ristić Vakanjac
sr Marina Čokorilo Ilić
sr Petar Papić
sr Dušan Polomčić,
sr Radisav Golubović

Abstract

sr Although an invisible component of the hydrologic cycle, groundwater generally takes precedence over other water resources in the area of drinking water supply. Among groundwater resources, karst aquifers tend to be rich in sufficiently-accessible amounts of high-quality water. During most of the year, this water requires only disinfection prior to delivery to the end user. However, in many cases extreme rainfall and/or sudden snow melt results in transient turbidity, increase in bacterial count and temporary contamination (e.g. increase in nitrate and phosphate concentrations). To be able to determine the effect of the precipitation regime on various groundwater quality parameters, it is necessary to establish continuous monitoring of the parameter of interest and certain parameters should be observed at least once a day, if not more often (continuously). Such monitoring provides sufficiently long time-series of the considered parameter, so that autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses can be undertaken and AR, CR and ARCR modeling used for simulations and short term forecasts. Apart from the theoretical background, the paper presents a case study of the occurrence of nitrates at a karst spring called “Banja” near the city of Valjevo, Serbia. A ten-year (1991–2000) timeseries of the discharged volume of water was used in the study, as well as nitrate concentrations recorded on a daily basis. In addition, daily precipitation was gauged in the immediate vicinity of the catchment and the rainwater chemically analyzed. The analyses included nitrate concentrations in precipitation. The generated timeseries were used for autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses of nitrate concentrations in the Banja Spring pool during the entire period of monitoring, as well as in one wet and one dry year. The results are presented for all three cases, based on simulations applying AR, CR and ARCR modeling.

Subject

sr autocorrelation
sr cross-correlation
sr autoregressive model
sr cross-regressive model
sr autocrossregressive model
sr nitrates
sr Banja Spring
sr Serbia

Source

sr Geološki anali Balkanskoga poluostrva

Publisher

sr University of Belgrade – Faculty of Mining and Geology,Department of Regional Geology and Department of Palaeontology

editor

sr Đerić Nevenka

Date Issued

sr July, 2018

issue

79

volume

1

page start

71

page end

81

Language

English

Identifier

sr https://doi.org/10.2298/GABP1879071R

Contributor

sr Đerić, Nevenka

Date

sr 2018

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